DENDROCHRONOLOGICAL ANALYSIS OF TREE SPECIES RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE HIGH-MOUNTAIN ECOSYSTEMS OF EASTERN KAZAKHSTAN

Abstract

This study focuses on analyzing the effects of climate change on tree growth using dendrochronological methods. The natural and climatic conditions of East Kazakhstan- marked by pronounced seasonality, high-altitude terrain, and continental climate- make it a unique model region for studying the dynamics of annual tree growth. In the context of limited historical meteorological data, tree rings serve as reliable proxy sources of climatic information.

During fieldwork conducted in 2013 and 2023 across various altitudinal zones in the Katon-Karagai State National Nature Park, 1,610 tree cores were collected. Growth chronologies were constructed for Betula pendula, Larix sibirica, Pinus sibirica, Picea obovata, and Abies sibirica. Ring widths were measured using the LINTAB system and TSAP-Win software; data processing included cross-dating and detrending using COFECHA, and statistical analysis in R (dplR, treeclim packages) and STATISTICA 13.2.

Results revealed a negative correlation between air temperature and tree growth, and a positive correlation with precipitation and solar activity. The highest correlation values were recorded with solar activity (r = 0.53–0.86), moderate with precipitation (r = 0.04–0.46), and negative with temperature. These findings demonstrate that radial growth of trees is highly sensitive to moisture availability and radiation conditions.

Thus, the identified growth patterns of tree species in response to climatic factors provide a scientific basis for regional dendroclimatic reconstructions and the assessment of the adaptive potential of forest ecosystems under climate change conditions.