ASSESSING URBAN GREENING TRENDS IN ALMATY CITY THROUGH NDVI ANALYSIS OVER FIVE YEARS (2020-2025)

Abstract

This study assesses city-wide urban greening trends in Almaty, Kazakhstan, over a five-year period (June 2020-June 2025) by analyzing seasonal and annual patterns of vegetation using NDVI derived from Sentinel-2 imagery. High-resolution (10 m) Sentinel-2 Level-2A imagery was processed in QGIS, filtered to exclude scenes with cloud coverage ≥30%, and clipped to Almaty’s administrative boundaries. NDVI values were calculated for selected cloud-free dates, aggregated at seasonal and custom annual scales (June–May), and statistically analyzed to evaluate spatial and temporal vegetation dynamics. Unlike previous localized studies, this research provides the first city-wide, multi-year assessment of Almaty’s urban vegetation using consistent satellite-based NDVI analysis. It establishes a baseline for long-term green infrastructure monitoring and offers valuable insights for sustainable urban planning. The results demonstrate strong, predictable seasonal NDVI patterns aligned with Almaty’s continental climate. Summer periods consistently showed peak greenness (~0.50-0.52 NDVI), while winter periods displayed much lower values (~0.01-0.07). No strong or consistent trend in annual mean NDVI was observed, indicating overall stability in city-wide greenness during the study period despite ongoing urban forestry initiatives.