БАЯЛДЫР ҚАЛДЫҚ ҚОЙМАСЫНА ЖИНАЛҒАН, ТҮСТІ МЕТАЛЛ КЕНДЕРІН БАЙЫТУЫНАН ҚАЛҒАН ТЕХНОГЕНДІК ҚАЛДЫҚТАРДЫҢ ҚОРШАҒАН ОРТАҒА ӘСЕРІНІҢ ТӘУЕКЕЛДЕРІН БАСҚАРУДЫ МОДЕЛЬДЕУ

Abstract

The article presents the results of a systematic analysis and modeling of risk management regarding the impact of non-ferrous metal ore enrichment tailings, stored at the Bayaldyr tailings storage facility (near the city of Kentau and the village of Bayaldyr, Turkestan region, Kazakhstan), on the regional environment. Based on data regarding the chemical and phase composition of the tailings (zinc content ~3.77%, lead ~4.47%, silicon dioxide 54.06%), an abstract "fault tree" (incident tree) model was constructed, and qualitative and quantitative analyses of the risk of environmental component degradation were conducted. The minimum path sets and cut sets of initial events were determined, and a quantitative assessment of the probability of the top event was performed using two methods (step-by-step calculation and the minimum path sets method). It was established that the probability of complex environmental pollution is 78.15%, indicating a critical level of environmental hazard. Recommendations have been developed to mitigate risks, including a combined dust suppression method (fine-dispersed hydro-sprinkling with pulsating ventilation) and a technology for the integrated processing of enrichment tailings for the production of building materials with the associated extraction of non-ferrous metals.